November was an important month for both investors and economists, as it marked the end of the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, and restarted the flow of economic data from the federal government. While some important data is still being delayed, it is generally true that most of the economic data released since the end of the shutdown has been pretty consistent with the trends that prevailed prior to its inception.
U.S. economic growth remains remarkably robust, with some data from the Federal Reserve estimating growth (net of inflation) at 3.5%1, which is about twice the historical average rate.
Ironically, despite this rapid economic growth, the employment outlook continues to weaken, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.6%2. Most job losses were concentrated in small and mid-sized businesses, which is noteworthy, as it is these smaller companies that have historically been the primary drivers of job growth in the U.S. According to November data from ADP, small businesses reduced jobs by the most since 2023.
Based on still limited data, inflation also continued to meander higher and combined with the challenging jobs market to produce a significant downturn in the major surveys of consumer confidence.
The major domestic equity markets were flat to down slightly in November, despite third quarter corporate earnings coming in at almost double previous estimates. For a change, many of the mega-cap technology stocks that have led the markets over recent years underperformed in November, with value-oriented stocks outpacing growth stocks and small and mid-sized stocks significantly outperforming their larger brethren.
European stocks outperformed the rest of the world, while declines in Chinese stocks depressed emerging market returns during November.
The bond market, as represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, posted modest November gains, as prospects for rate cuts (and even a potential resumption of asset purchases) by the Federal Reserve more than offset growing concerns over inflation.
Additional Disclosures:
This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties.
Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal.
The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise noted, performance of indices do not account for any fees, commissions or other expenses that would be incurred. Returns do not include reinvested dividends.
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Small capitalization securities involve greater issuer risk than larger capitalization securities, and the markets for such securities may be more volatile and less liquid. Specifically, small capitalization companies may be subject to more volatile market movements than securities of larger, more established companies, both because the securities typically are traded in lower volume and because the issuers typically are more subject to changes in earnings and prospects.
Sources:
1. “GDPNow”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, As of 12/16/2025, https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
2. “United States Unemployment Rate”, Trading Economics, As of 12/16/2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate